Commodity Market Structure and Risk Factor Analysis in Bulgaria

Authors

  • Assoc. Prof. Dr Victor Yotzov Department of Finance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, UNWE Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.37075/YB.2021.2.04

Keywords:

Raw material market, Oil and natural gas market, Early warning system, Probit model
C53, Q31, Q32

Abstract

Analyzing the Bulgarian raw material, crude oil and natural gas markets is an important step in setting up an early warning system (EWS). The Comprehensive Price Index is based on the weighting of imports from the energy and non-energy sectors, including the crude oil sector. The explanatory variables that describe the crisis index are analyzed and predicted by the ordered Probit model. The EWS system developed in this study takes into account the most important measurable variables that affect the raw material market, and based on this understanding, we focus on which variables can represent risk.

References

G Bekaert, M Hoerova, ML Duca - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2013 (2013). Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393213000871

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Published

2022-04-05

Issue

No. 2 (2021)

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2021 Victor Yotzov (Author)

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Authors retain copyright to their works.

All publications are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.

How to Cite

Yotzov, V. (2022). Commodity Market Structure and Risk Factor Analysis in Bulgaria. UNWE Yearbook, 2, 53-73. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.37075/YB.2021.2.04